Revenue Rose 26%, Inflation Rose 32%
Turkish statistical office data show combined turnover across industry, construction, trade and services rose 25.8 per cent year on year in June. Coverage read it as growth; some outlets ran with “turnover growth continues in the real sector.” Annual inflation published by the same institution stands at 31.75 per cent.
Set the two figures side by side and the picture changes: turnover growth sits roughly six points behind price growth. Revenue expanding in nominal terms is contracting in purchasing power.
A second signal appears nowhere in the headlines. The same index rose 32.7 per cent year on year in May. That is a seven-point deceleration in a single month, and the growth rate has crossed from above inflation to below it.
What the Data Shows
BU BÖLÜMÜN ÖZETİ
- Growth decelerated
- Monthly figures declined
- Sectors diverged
- Monthly directions differ too
Four breakdowns build the picture together.
Growth decelerated
Annual growth fell from 32.7 per cent in May to 25.8 in June. One month may be volatility; it nonetheless changes which side of the threshold you stand on.
Monthly figures declined
Total turnover fell 0.3 per cent against the previous month, pulled down by industry: the industrial index dropped 2.7 per cent monthly and construction 0.7.
Sectors diverged
Annual growth reached 31.3 per cent in services, 29.9 in construction, 26.7 in industry and 23.5 in trade. The spread runs to eight points.
Monthly directions differ too
While industry and construction fell month on month, trade rose 0.5 per cent and services 0.8. Two sectors declining and two rising inside the same month.
What This Figure Means
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- It carries no meaning without a price comparison
- The sector gap therefore matters
- The monthly decline is a separate signal
- One month is not a trend
The result cannot be read without asking where the growth came from.
It carries no meaning without a price comparison
In a period with inflation at 31.75 per cent, turnover growth of 25.8 points to a decline in the volume of goods and services sold. Revenue can grow while the business shrinks.
The sector gap therefore matters
Services came close to matching inflation while trade fell eight points behind. Within the same economy, one sector holds near break-even while another visibly contracts.
The monthly decline is a separate signal
Annual comparison carries the previous year’s base; monthly data says what happened in that month. The 2.7 per cent monthly fall in industry deserves tracking on its own.
One month is not a trend
The seven-point gap between May and June is striking but covers a single month. A trend requires at least three months of movement.
Whose Problem Is This?
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- Those sitting comfortably
- Those under pressure
- Those outside it
- How it compounds
Exposure follows pricing power rather than sector.
Those sitting comfortably
Businesses able to adjust prices alongside inflation. The 31.3 per cent growth on the services side suggests stronger price pass-through in that sector.
Those under pressure
Businesses locked into contracts or unable to raise prices because of competition. Part of the lag on the trade side may originate here, and the gap comes straight out of margin.
Those outside it
Exporters earning and spending in the same foreign currency are relatively sheltered from this squeeze. Where they also sell domestically, they feel it there.
How it compounds
Nominal turnover rises, the business assumes growth, expands stock and headcount, while actual sales volume has fallen. Misread growth produces unnecessary cost.
What to Do About It
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- Strip inflation out of your revenue
- Measure in units
- Use your own sector’s rate
- Test your price pass-through
All four can be done this week with your own data.
Strip inflation out of your revenue
Compare your annual revenue growth against the period’s inflation rate. A growth rate below inflation means the business is expanding nominally while contracting in real terms.
Measure in units
How many units you sold is an indicator independent of price. Revenue rising while unit count stays flat means growth is coming entirely from price.
Use your own sector’s rate
The headline 25.8 per cent does not describe your sector. Trade sits at 23.5, services at 31.3; the right comparison uses your own.
Test your price pass-through
How many times and by what total percentage did you raise prices in the past year? A figure below inflation means your margin is quietly eroding.
The Digital Side
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- Revenue reporting can mislead
- Demand falls in search first
- Baskets can grow while visits fall
- Budget cuts start in the wrong place
Real contraction makes digital measurement harder.
Revenue reporting can mislead
Where the return on advertising and content is measured through revenue, price increases look like performance. Measuring the same thing in order count corrects the picture.
Demand falls in search first
Search volume and query structure shift before sales figures move. That data can show contraction a quarter ahead.
Baskets can grow while visits fall
A basket inflated by price increases hides declining visitor numbers. The two indicators need tracking separately — a reading error we correct often in e-commerce consulting.
Budget cuts start in the wrong place
In a contraction the first items cut are usually the unmeasured ones, when cuts should start with the lowest return.
A Solid Digital Foundation
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- Compare against the same period last year
- Watch the shift in query structure
- Read brand searches separately
- Measurement is set up once
The cheapest way to spot real contraction early is reading search data correctly.
Compare against the same period last year
Search volume should be measured against the same month a year earlier rather than the previous month; seasonal swing otherwise gets mistaken for trend. Google Search Central sets out how period comparison shapes the interpretation of performance data. Data compared against the wrong period manufactures a trend that does not exist.
Watch the shift in query structure
A rising share of price and value-related queries signals demand beginning to move. It appears before sales figures do.
Read brand searches separately
Searches using your brand name behave differently from general category searches. Combined, they hide the real change in demand.
Measurement is set up once
Period comparison and query breakdown, defined once, generate data every month; we cover the setup within digital consulting.
Frequently Asked Questions
Sık Sorulan Sorular
Nominal growth. Turnover growth below the rate of price increases points to a fall in the quantity sold.
Comparing your revenue growth against the period’s inflation rate gives a rough view. Tracking unit sales directly is more reliable.
Your own. The headline figure averages four sectors and the spread between them reaches eight points.
Alone it may be volatility. The 2.7 per cent monthly fall in industry is nonetheless a magnitude worth watching.
Permanence cannot be drawn from a single month’s data. Three months of movement is needed, though crossing the threshold warrants attention.
If your price pass-through sits below inflation, your margin is eroding. The decision depends on competitive conditions and your cost structure.
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute turnover indices for June 2026 and consumer price index for July 2026. The real comparison here places the published nominal turnover growth alongside the annual inflation rate; it is not identical to the institute’s separately published adjusted indices.