How to Do Market Research Before Opening a Shop
Most shops close not because of the product but because of an untested assumption: “this area needs this” turns into a lease before it is measured. Market research is the name of testing that sentence before signing — and for a shop it happens on the pavement, not in a report. For a foreign founder, it is also the fastest cure for reading a Turkish district through home-market habits.
Where research sits in the decision chain is in the complete guide; here is the question set of a one-week field tour.
Step 1: Count the Customer
Stand in front of the candidate unit in three time slots: morning, noon, evening. Count not the crowd but your customer: age, shopping bags, walking direction. Weekday and weekend are counted separately; two days do not represent a week.
The second count happens inside the district: housing density, schools and workplaces, transit stops. The direction of foot flow can double or halve turnover two doors apart on the same street.
Step 2: Read the Competitor
Every point serving the same need is a competitor: the look-alike shop, the chain supermarket shelf and the internet. On the competitor tour note three things: the price band, the hours with queues, and what customers hold as they leave.
The most valuable data comes from closures: what opened and closed on this street in two years, and what replaced it? Estate agents and neighbouring shopkeepers are the living archive; two glasses of tea are worth a week of observation — and in Türkiye, that tea is genuinely how the information moves.
Step 3: Verify the Gap
Observation suggests a gap: “this district has no X.” A gap is not always an opportunity; the possibility that it is missing because demand is missing must be tested. The test is asking: residents, site managers and neighbourhood groups — “where do you buy X?”
Answers point two ways. If the need is met outside the district, the gap is real; if “we don’t buy it” dominates, the gap is the absence of demand. Fifteen to twenty conversations are a sufficient sample for the distinction.
Step 4: Measure the Digital Traces
The district’s search behaviour is also field ground. Search your category on the map: how many competitors appear, what are their review counts, how far is the nearest strong profile? Competitors without reviews or photos mean a market with its digital side left empty — an open door for you.
The second trace is the “where can I find” questions in neighbourhood groups; they are the cheapest indicator of unmeasured demand. General research methods for small businesses deepen in a separate guide.
Step 5: Turn Findings into Numbers
The tour must end with three figures: daily target customers passing, a realistic conversion estimate, and the average basket. Their product gives a turnover forecast in the cautious, not optimistic scenario.
That forecast feeds the rent negotiation and the budget table: if rent exceeds a quarter of cautious turnover, it is not the shop that is expensive but the assumption. Research exists for exactly that sentence.
Field Note
A café candidate was about to take the busiest corner of the street; the counting tour showed something else. The corner crowd were people waiting at the bus stop — no bags in hand, eyes on the bus. A school gate two streets in poured the same crowd twice a day. The café opened there; the corner still stands empty.
Quick Summary
A one-week tour suffices: count customers in three slots, read competitors through price-queue-bag, verify the gap with fifteen conversations, measure digital traces on the map, and convert findings into a cautious turnover forecast. An unmeasured assumption is the most expensive clause in the lease.
Frequently Asked Questions
Sık Sorulan Sorular
Not for a single shop; the tour in this article is done by the owner in a week. Agencies enter at multi-branch growth decisions.
A week in the field plus a few days of evaluation is the healthy band. Research that runs for months is usually fear of deciding in disguise.
Not a survey — conversation: fifteen to twenty short talks tell whether the gap is real or artificial.
Next step: Take the tour’s numbers and score candidate units with the location guide; enter the contract stage through the nine-clause filter.