The Market Is Not Shrinking, It Is Moving Upward
Alcoholic drink supply in Turkey fell 9.7 per cent in the first half of 2026, with beer down 12.4 per cent while whisky rose 11.6 per cent and rakı 14.3 per cent. The coverage reported contraction. The finding inside the data is different: total volume fell 9.7 per cent while pure alcohol volume fell only 1.9 per cent. Consumers are not consuming less; they are moving from cheap, high-volume products to expensive, concentrated ones.
The same pattern appears in Germany. Federal Statistical Office data show 53 breweries closing in 2025, bringing the total to 1,415, with 137 closures since 2019. Alcohol-free beer production, meanwhile, reached roughly 750 million litres in 2025. The traditional category contracts while the adjacent one grows.
You are probably not in this sector. The data is nonetheless worth attention because it is one of the cleanest available measurements of within-category migration — a movement occurring across food, furniture, clothing and durables. For brands selling into Turkey, it also describes where the market is going.
What Happened
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- Volume contracted in Turkey
- Almost all of the decline came from beer
- Expensive categories grew
- Structural contraction in Germany
Two countries’ data placed side by side produce one movement.
Volume contracted in Turkey
Total domestic supply of alcoholic drinks fell to 566.2 million litres in the first half of 2026 from 627.2 million a year earlier, a 9.7 per cent decline. The figures reflect volumes supplied to the domestic market rather than final consumption.
Almost all of the decline came from beer
Beer sales fell from 545.1 million litres to 477.2 million. Against a 61 million litre decline in total supply, the beer decline alone was 67.8 million litres — meaning other categories offset part of the loss.
Expensive categories grew
Whisky reached 17.82 million litres, up 11.6 per cent year on year and 28.3 per cent over two years. Rakı rose 14.3 per cent to 18.72 million litres and wine 3.9 per cent to 30.04 million.
Structural contraction in Germany
Germany lost 53 breweries in 2025, leaving 1,415. Of these, 821 produce at most 100,000 litres annually while only eight exceed 200 million. Cost pressure falls hardest on small and family operations.
What the Numbers Mean
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- Volume and value diverge
- Tax distorts behavioural measurement
- Income distribution is legible here
- The scale threshold is rising
The value of this data lies in two measures being published together.
Volume and value diverge
Total product volume fell 9.7 per cent while pure alcohol volume fell 1.9 per cent. The gap shows consumers drinking more concentrated rather than less. A sector analysis reading only litres misreads the picture entirely.
Tax distorts behavioural measurement
Ahead of a tax increase in late 2025, December supply rose to 186.7 million litres before falling to 23.7 million in January. That swing reflects stockpiling; drawing a trend from monthly data is misleading.
Income distribution is legible here
A steep decline in the cheaper product alongside growth in the more expensive one carries the imprint of divergence in purchasing power. Two consumer groups are moving in opposite directions within one market.
The scale threshold is rising
In the German data the overwhelming majority of breweries operate at very small scale, and closures come from that group. As cost pressure builds, the minimum viable scale rises and mid-sized producers become the most exposed.
Who This Affects, and How
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- Those who gain
- Those who lose
- Those largely unaffected
- The indirect chain
The same picture produces opposite outcomes depending on position within the category.
Those who gain
Producers positioned in the upper segment with high value per unit. They can grow revenue in a contracting market because the migrating demand arrives with them. Those developing adjacent categories also gain: in Germany, alcohol-free beer grew while the traditional category shrank.
Those who lose
Volume producers with low unit value, hit simultaneously by migrating demand and cost pressure. For small-scale producers, closure becomes the most common outcome.
Those largely unaffected
Businesses outside the sector see no direct effect. Restaurants, retailers and tourism operators selling these products, however, face a changing product mix and must reach the same revenue from different lines.
The indirect chain
Volume falls, a small producer loses scale, unit cost rises, prices increase and demand declines further. Producers caught in that loop generally blame the market; the market has not shrunk — the rung they occupy has narrowed.
What to Do About It
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- Measure volume and value separately
- Split the product mix into tiers
- Look at the adjacent category
- Strip out seasonal and tax effects
All four apply outside this sector and can be started this quarter.
Measure volume and value separately
Units sold and profit earned should be tracked apart. Falling units with protected profit is not a problem but a signal of migration; both falling together is a different problem. Two measures on the same chart produce two different decisions.
Split the product mix into tiers
Separate the catalogue into entry, mid and premium and calculate each tier’s share of revenue and profit. Only then does the direction of migration become visible, and most businesses have never made this split.
Look at the adjacent category
Alcohol-free beer grew in Germany while traditional beer contracted. There may be a growing area beside your category, and seeing it requires market data rather than your own sales figures.
Strip out seasonal and tax effects
Pre-tax stockpiling, weather and tourism distort monthly data. Establishing a trend requires at least two quarters and seasonally adjusted comparison.
The Digital Side
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- The storefront reflects last year’s mix
- Premium is described differently
- The second tier is sold to the same customer
- Product mix reporting must be regular
When a category migrates, a business’s digital structure usually remains built for the old distribution.
The storefront reflects last year’s mix
Homepage layout, category order and featured products are typically arranged around a sales distribution a year old. If demand has migrated, the storefront must migrate too; otherwise the growing product sits in the least visible place.
Premium is described differently
An expensive product does not sell through the same page structure as a cheap one. Origin, production method and distinctive properties are decisive there; price alone is not an argument.
The second tier is sold to the same customer
Introducing the premium tier to an existing entry-tier customer is cheaper than acquiring a new one, and it requires a system able to communicate based on purchase history. This is the work we do most in e-commerce consulting during periods like this.
Product mix reporting must be regular
Where tier-level sales are not reported quarterly, migration is only noticed at year end — by which point the period for responding has passed.
A Solid Digital Foundation
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- People are now searching for something else
- Declining pages should not be deleted
- A new category is not built from zero
- Measurement shows migration early
That searches migrate along with demand escapes most businesses.
People are now searching for something else
As a category migrates, search behaviour changes: queries for the old product decline while the new one rises. Content has to follow that movement, because a page written for last year’s queries falls outside this year’s demand. How search performance should be monitored is explained in the Google Search Central documentation. If demand migrates, content must migrate.
Declining pages should not be deleted
Closing pages for products losing traffic also loses the small but qualified audience still arriving. The right move is adding a route to the growing category rather than removing the page.
A new category is not built from zero
Entering a growing category can draw on the standing existing pages have accumulated. Linking new pages into the existing structure produces results far faster than building a separate island.
Measurement shows migration early
Search data moves before sales data. A business tracking query distribution sees migration a quarter earlier and can make product decisions in time. How that monitoring is built is set out in our approach to digital consulting.
Frequently Asked Questions
Sık Sorulan Sorular
Volume is contracting; value is not contracting to the same degree. Total product volume fell 9.7 per cent while pure alcohol volume fell 1.9 per cent, which indicates migration.
No. It reflects volumes supplied to the domestic market by producers and importers, which does not map exactly onto consumption. Stockpiling widens that gap further.
It demonstrates how within-category migration is measured. The same method applies in food, furniture, clothing and durables.
No. The premium tier requires a different customer, a different narrative and a different cost structure. The decision follows where your existing customers are moving.
Position on a distinctive attribute rather than competing on volume. In the German case, the producers that closed were small ones that had not differentiated.
By tracking tier-level revenue and profit alongside search query distribution. Both generally move ahead of sales figures.
Source: Turkish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry domestic supply data for alcoholic beverages, first half of 2026; German Federal Statistical Office data, 4 August 2026; reported by Ekonomim.