AI Took the Memory, Phones Paid the Bill
Global smartphone shipments fell 11 per cent in the second quarter, the weakest second-quarter performance since 2013. The cause is not demand but supply: memory manufacturers redirected capacity to artificial intelligence data centres, raising the cost of components used in handsets. One sector’s investment appetite changed the price tag of an entirely unrelated one.
According to Counterpoint Research, the contraction is sharpest in the entry and mid segments. Manufacturers working on thin margins cannot absorb higher costs in affordable devices; some raised prices, others cut production of low-priced models. The memory squeeze is expected to persist into 2027, with full-year shipments forecast to fall around 14 per cent.
You may not sell phones. This story nonetheless describes a mechanism that operates in every sector: when a wealthier buyer enters the market for a shared input, everyone else pays more. It also has a specific consequence for anyone selling into emerging markets, Turkey included, which the closing sections address.
What Happened
BU BÖLÜMÜN ÖZETİ
- Shipments fell 11 per cent
- Memory is the cause
- The entry segment absorbed the impact
- The premium end diverged
Four figures summarise the picture.
Shipments fell 11 per cent
Global shipments declined 11 per cent year on year in the second quarter, the lowest level for a second quarter since 2013.
Memory is the cause
Memory producers deprioritised consumer electronics in favour of the hardware requirements of AI data centres, raising the cost of components used in handsets.
The entry segment absorbed the impact
Entry and mid-range devices were hit hardest. In price-sensitive emerging markets, consumers are postponing device replacement rather than trading down.
The premium end diverged
Against the general decline, Apple raised shipments 3 per cent and took a record 20 per cent share; Samsung led with 24 per cent, helped by stronger product availability than its rivals. The market did not shrink so much as compress upward.
What the Numbers Mean
BU BÖLÜMÜN ÖZETİ
- The wealthiest buyer sets the price
- Thin margins break first
- Postponement stores demand rather than destroying it
- The horizon is long
This data describes shared-input competition more than it describes phones.
The wealthiest buyer sets the price
A data centre can pay several times what a handset maker can for the same memory. Where two buyers compete for one production line, the higher payer wins and sets the level. Everyone else buys at the new one. This is not a supply crisis but a priority shift — and priority shifts last longer than supply crises.
Thin margins break first
The same cost increase moves a premium product by a few per cent and breaks the business model of an entry-level one. Cost shocks start cracking at the cheapest end of a market.
Postponement stores demand rather than destroying it
A consumer deferring a replacement has not abandoned the purchase, only moved it. That represents accumulated future demand — which does nothing for present cash flow.
The horizon is long
The squeeze is expected to persist into 2027. This is not a passing fluctuation but a period requiring pricing and production planning to be rebuilt.
Who This Affects, and How
BU BÖLÜMÜN ÖZETİ
- Those who gain
- Those who lose
- Those largely unaffected
- The indirect chain
Exposure depends on how dependent a business is on shared electronic inputs.
Those who gain
Manufacturers positioned at the upper end with wider margins and secured supply. Stronger availability wins share in a contracting market. Refurbished-device sellers are also growing through this period.
Those who lose
Producers using electronic components while competing on price. White goods, home electronics, automation and any device manufacturer draws from the same memory pool. Retailers selling affordable devices are losing revenue directly.
Those largely unaffected
Service and food businesses with no electronic inputs see no direct line. Any business with a hardware replacement budget will nonetheless meet higher costs on the investment side.
The indirect chain
Devices become expensive, businesses defer hardware renewal, older devices stay in the field, and software and websites that fail on older devices start losing customers. A chip price returns to you as a phone your site will not open on.
What This Means for Selling Into Turkey
BU BÖLÜMÜN ÖZETİ
- The installed device base is ageing
- Older devices behave differently
- Mandatory app installation becomes a barrier
- Weight matters more than design
For brands with customers in price-sensitive markets, the consequence is concrete.
The installed device base is ageing
As replacement is postponed, the average age of handsets in use rises. Testing your site or application on the newest device means not seeing the real user experience.
Older devices behave differently
Ageing handsets are not merely slower; storage is full, browsers are out of date and connections are weaker. A heavy page simply does not open under those conditions, and the user attributes the failure to themselves rather than to you.
Mandatory app installation becomes a barrier
A flow that requires downloading an application loses the sale on a phone with no storage left. A path that can be completed in the browser must remain open. This is the most common correction we make in e-commerce consulting work in this period.
Weight matters more than design
Unoptimised images alone account for several megabytes on most sites. In a market where devices are ageing, page weight moves from a technical detail to a commercial one.
What to Do About It
BU BÖLÜMÜN ÖZETİ
- Bring hardware renewal forward
- Shorten quotation validity on electronic goods
- Find a second source
- Consider refurbished equipment
All four are within reach this quarter and three protect cost directly.
Bring hardware renewal forward
If devices are due for replacement within the year, plan the purchase before prices rise further. Where the forecast points to constraint into 2027, waiting does not make it cheaper.
Shorten quotation validity on electronic goods
Long fixed-price offers carry risk where component costs are moving. Shortening validity is easier to manage than requesting an increase afterwards.
Find a second source
Identifying an alternative for single-sourced components takes months. Beginning the search after the constraint bites means joining a queue.
Consider refurbished equipment
For field teams, warehouse terminals and office hardware, refurbished devices deliver substantial savings in this price environment with no operational difference where warranty terms are clear.
A Solid Digital Foundation
BU BÖLÜMÜN ÖZETİ
- The oldest device is the honest test
- Image weight is the fastest win
- Plan for connections that drop
- Lightness is not a temporary fix
As the device base ages, the weakest condition your site runs under becomes the real condition.
The oldest device is the honest test
If your site has not been tested on the most common older model among your audience, your performance data is incomplete. Assessment on the search side is also based on the mobile experience, and mobile usability criteria are explained in the Google Search Central documentation. A site is measured by what it does on the worst phone, not the best.
Image weight is the fastest win
Unoptimised images typically make up the bulk of total page weight. Correcting them is the quickest improvement available without changing infrastructure.
Plan for connections that drop
A payment flow interrupted on a weak connection loses the order. A basket that saves progress keeps the same user when they return.
Lightness is not a temporary fix
When the device base eventually refreshes, a light site keeps its advantage while a heavy one continues to lose. The investment is therefore permanent rather than seasonal. How it is built is set out in our approach to digital consulting.
Frequently Asked Questions
Sık Sorulan Sorular
Analysts expect the memory squeeze to persist into 2027, with further price increases likely to reach shelves. No specific level can be projected.
The same memory pool supplies everything from white goods to automation. More immediately, your customers postponing device replacement affects your digital channel directly.
For equipment already due within the year, waiting produces no price advantage. Where the need is uncertain, evaluate the decision alongside refurbished options.
Probably. New devices mask heavy pages. Real performance should be measured on the average device your audience actually uses.
No, but it should not be the only route. A browser-based path to purchase needs to remain available.
Postponed replacement demand is accumulating, so recovery potential exists. Prices are unlikely to ease, however, before memory supply normalises.
Source: Counterpoint Research preliminary estimates for the second quarter of 2026, as reported by Dünya.