ECE Türkiye mall turnover rose 30% in 8 months, how should retailers measure growth?
Turnover at the shopping malls in ECE Türkiye’s portfolio rose by about 30% in the first eight months of 2026 compared with the same period last year, while average inflation stood at 31.68% (Perakende.org, 25 September 2026). The category picture is uneven: entertainment grew 42%, health 35%, dining 33% and grocery 30%, while fashion reached 26% and footwear only 17%. ECE Türkiye expects a balanced course for the rest of the year and year-end inflation of around 30%.
What it means for you: a bigger number in the till is not a bigger business. A 30% nominal rise next to 31.68% inflation is flat in real terms. In autumn 2026, every retailer in Türkiye’s malls (AVMs, as shopping centres are called locally) and high streets should ask: is growth coming from prices or from customers?
Does the 30% turnover rise at ECE Türkiye’s malls beat inflation?
No. Nominal turnover rose about 30% against average inflation of 31.68%, so prices ran slightly ahead and the report itself calls real growth limited. Adjust the rise for inflation and the result lands just below zero, which is close to standing still. This is turnover of the malls in ECE’s portfolio, not ECE’s own revenue.
How does ECE Türkiye’s category data affect different types of stores?
It splits them into three groups. Entertainment, health and dining businesses sit on the winning side, with turnover growth above inflation. Grocery, at 30%, is close to inflation and roughly standing still. Fashion and footwear stores, at 26% and 17%, are shrinking in real terms, because mall spending is flowing through other doors.
Which measures should retailers compare to read real growth?
Three of them: nominal turnover, inflation-adjusted turnover, and receipt count with average basket. Semet Yolaç Canlıel of ECE Türkiye sums up the need: judging total turnover alone “is no longer enough” to understand where consumption is heading. The table compares them on the same criteria.
| Criterion | Nominal turnover | Real turnover | Receipts and basket |
|---|---|---|---|
| What it shows | Total money through the till | Growth with the price effect removed | Whether customers or prices are growing |
| Data source | Till and accounts | Turnover plus TCMB CPI | Point-of-sale receipt log |
| Weak spot | Makes inflation look like growth | Hides category differences | Says nothing about profit on its own |
| Who it suits | Owners planning tax and cash | Owners setting annual targets | Store and category managers |
With mall occupancy near 100%, should brands open new stores or grow existing ones?
For most brands, the existing store’s sales per square metre comes first. Nuri Şapkacı of ECE Türkiye says occupancy close to 100% in malls makes it harder for brands that want to grow or enter the market to find suitable locations. When new space is hard to find, the real turnover of the square metres you already have matters more.
How does real growth measurement show up in a retailer’s web, search and ad data?
Directly, because most digital dashboards also show nominal numbers. Revenue in your ad account, average basket on your website and marketplace turnover all inflate with prices. To read real growth online, look at order count, sessions and conversion rate, none of which a price rise can inflate.
How should a store owner rebuild the turnover report this week?
You can do it in four steps. Open a table that compares each month’s turnover with the same month last year, add the TCMB annual CPI figure for that month and calculate real growth. Then add receipt count and average basket. Finally, split out your main product groups.
Quick Summary
- Turnover at malls in ECE Türkiye’s portfolio rose about 30% in the first eight months of 2026 (Perakende.org).
- Average inflation over the same period was 31.68%, so real growth stays limited (Perakende.org).
- Entertainment at 42%, health at 35% and dining at 33% beat inflation, while fashion at 26% and footwear at 17% trail it (Perakende.org).
- Annual CPI stands at 29.73% in September 2026 (TCMB).
- To read growth properly, add real turnover, receipt count and a category breakdown next to nominal turnover.
Short Glossary
- Real turnover
- Real turnover is the measure used to show how much of a rise in turnover remains once the effect of inflation is removed.
- Receipt count
- Receipt count is the customer traffic indicator used to show how many purchases go through the till in a given period.
- Sales per square metre
- Sales per square metre is the ratio of store turnover to selling area, used to measure how productive the space is.
Frequently Asked Questions
Next Step
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Sources: Perakende.org, 25 September 2026 · TCMB inflation data
Updated: October 2026
Sık Sorulan Sorular
The report does not define the figure. The average of the annual CPI readings (TÜFE, Türkiye’s consumer price index) for January to August 2026 in the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s inflation data comes to 31.68. That match is our own calculation; the source does not explain its method.
Divide this year’s turnover by last year’s, then divide the result by 1 plus the inflation rate. A result above 1 means real growth, and below 1 means prices are running ahead of you. With the mall figures, 1.30 divided by 1.3168 gives roughly 0.99, just under the line. Accountants call this deflating.
Annual CPI stands at 29.73% in September 2026, lower than every monthly reading from January to August. Even so, across a year in which annual inflation moves between 29.73% and 32.61%, a rise of around 30% is flat in real terms.
Entertainment rose 42% and dining 33%. Spending is shifting toward experiences. For a cinema, café or restaurant operator, that means a customer paying for the outing itself. We cover the restaurant channel side in our piece on TAB Gıda’s 56% digital channel share.
Footwear’s 17% rise is just over half of the average inflation rate. In this category, stock that does not sell just sits on the shelf. Basket value may be rising with prices while receipts fall; check that in your own data.
Health, at 35%, is above inflation, while grocery, at 30%, sits just below it. Essential spending holds up, but grocery growth looks price-driven. For grocery and stationery operators, our take on A101’s back-to-school shopping survey gives a concrete stock example.
None works alone; the winner is real turnover read together with receipt count. One tells you whether you grew, the other whether growth came from more customers. Nominal turnover suits cash planning but misleads as a growth signal.
Around the same time, TAB Gıda reports system sales growth of 45% in nominal terms and 13% in real terms. Companies now report the real figure next to the nominal one, and a small business can do the same internally.
ECE’s data spans 17% to 42% under one roof, and total turnover melts that gap into an average. Real growth by SKU or product group shows which shelf actually makes money.
Sales per square metre is store turnover divided by selling area. Year on year, it needs the same inflation adjustment. If the nominal figure rises while the real one falls, the store does less business in the same space.
Şapkacı stresses healthy cash flow and a sustainable operating structure for retailers. In a flat year, a new store’s rent and fit-out come out of the existing till. If the till is not ringing, a second store doubles the load.
Entertainment and dining pulling ahead may help mall managers steer their tenant mix that way. The report names Çekmeköy Park and Adapalm but gives no detail on their mix. Experience brands may gain leverage in location talks.
Measured by revenue, ad return rises artificially with prices. The same orders book more revenue, so the campaign looks successful. Order count and new customers are more honest measures.
Yes. Search Console impressions and clicks are a demand signal prices do not touch. If category searches rise, interest is real; if turnover rises while searches stay flat, the growth is on the price tag.
With occupancy this high, more footfall starts with maps and your business profile. Direction requests and search clicks, tracked next to receipt count, show why customers walk out without buying.
Pull twelve months of turnover and receipt count from your point-of-sale system, plus the same months a year earlier. Put marketplace and website sales in a separate column, and move any paper ledger into the same table.
Separate the three to five product groups that make most of your turnover and compare each one’s rise with inflation. The group trailing inflation comes first in shelf and stock decisions.
Reading till, marketplace and ad data in real terms on one dashboard is part of our work in digital consulting. To start with your own team, the four columns above are enough.
If inflation over the same period was above 30%, you have not grown in real terms. Compare your turnover with last year, adjust it with the TCMB annual CPI figure and check your receipt count.
Not for the basic calculation. A table with monthly turnover, the same month last year and the TCMB annual CPI figure is enough. Keep working with your accountant on tax and financial statements.
The data comes from malls, but the category trend shows the general direction of spending. A high street store owner can use the same method to check whether their category is above or below inflation.